❯ Haitong International forecasts 9% Tencent revenue growth as AI depreciation and product costs weigh on profit

Forecasts await reported resultsAccording to Jiemian’s October 21 report, Haitong International forecasts Tencent’s third-quarter revenue at approximately RMB210.2 billion, up 9%, and adjusted operating profit at RMB68.8 billion, down 5%, partly reflecting AI depreciation and product spending. It trimmed its target price about 2% to HK$470 while retaining an Outperform rating. These are analyst estimates; Tencent has not reported actual quarterly results.

Different businesses support revenueThe analyst expects domestic gaming to remain competitive, international gaming to face a high comparison base, Video Accounts to support marketing services, and cloud demand and pricing to help enterprise services. Its full-year forecasts imply 10% revenue and 2% adjusted net-profit growth. The operating question is how existing business growth covers new AI investment.

Spending and returns arrive at different timesThe report recalls second-quarter capital expenditure of about RMB52.78 billion for compute, Hunyuan and AI applications. Server purchases create an immediate cash outflow, depreciation reaches the income statement over time, and product revenue develops with adoption and payment. Tencent closed October 21 at HK$393.8; market prices and operating investment measure different things.

The bond process has advancedA reproduction of Tencent’s announcement records subscription agreements dated October 13, New York time, pricing $1.8 billion and RMB26 billion of notes. Proceeds are for general corporate purposes, expanding resources available for operations, refinancing and investment.

▮ SIGNALAI investment affects cash first and profit through depreciation later, making the pace of product monetization a separate variable from spending.