❯ Nvidia’s off-balance-sheet commitments and guarantees are estimated at $530 billion, up from $184 billion a quarter earlier

More than $300 billion added in a quarterResearch firm SemiAnalysis wrote on October 10 that Nvidia’s latest quarterly report discloses off-balance-sheet guarantees and commitments totaling $530 billion across six line items, up from $184 billion disclosed the prior quarter. Off-balance-sheet means these obligations are not counted as liabilities on the balance sheet, but the company may have to pay under certain conditions.

Supply deals and lease guarantees leadA filing analysis by Hudson Labs shows Nvidia’s supply and capacity commitments at $279 billion as of July 26, up from $119 billion last quarter, to secure data center infrastructure, memory and manufacturing capacity. In August, Nvidia also entered into guarantees capped at $105 billion on data center leases at an SB Energy campus in Ohio, where the tenant is OpenAI and the term is 20 years.

Two new line itemsSemiAnalysis points to two new items: $36 billion of AI cloud agreements, which amount to backstops for neoclouds, and $20 billion of data center leases that Nvidia has taken out to later assign to those cloud providers. Hudson Labs notes that if customers or partners fail to meet their obligations, Nvidia may have to assume long-term leases or make substantial payments.

The chip seller is backing its buyersSemiAnalysis estimates Nvidia’s EBITDA at $450 billion for the fiscal year ending January 2028 and says the company could expand these obligations beyond $1 trillion in the coming years, stressing this is an analysis of capacity, not a forecast. Lenders to AI data centers gain an extra layer of protection, while Nvidia takes on part of its customers’ default risk.

▮ SIGNALA chip supplier is using its own credit to guarantee its customers’ buildings and orders, leaving the financing chain behind the compute buildout ever more dependent on one company’s cash flow.