❯ CXMT is producing HBM3E in small volumes, with Alibaba’s T-Head and Cambricon testing it

the line is runningPer The Information, China’s largest memory maker CXMT has begun small-volume production of HBM3E — the high-bandwidth memory used across current AI accelerators, including Nvidia’s H200 and Blackwell. Alibaba’s T-Head unit and Cambricon are testing the chips with their own processors, and if qualification goes smoothly they could ship in commercial products as early as next year, with CXMT planning to expand output in 2027.

what the controls targetedThe U.S. expanded export controls on HBM in December 2024, aimed squarely at what matters for AI training and inference. Chinese AI chip designers had depended on imported memory subject to restriction or delay — HBM has been the hardest chokepoint for domestic AI accelerators, since the logic can be designed but a part without its memory never becomes a product. It is also CXMT’s third piece of news in days, after first-half revenue of 150.31 billion yuan and net profit of 77.605 billion yuan, followed by its suit against the Pentagon over a “Chinese military company” designation.

state the gap plainlyA breakthrough is still a generation behind: Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are already mass-producing HBM4 while CXMT is at small-volume HBM3E, with industry estimates putting it three to five years behind and contending with low yields. “Small volume” is described in reporting as risk production, some distance from supplying at scale. Reading this as export controls failing overstates it; the chokepoint moved from none at all to some, and expensive.

whose math changesThe first to recalculate are Chinese AI chip designers’ product schedules: HBM supply used to be exogenous, and now there is a domestic path — behind, but controllable — which makes 2027 a concrete date. On the other side, Micron’s, Samsung’s and SK Hynix’s share assumptions in China come under pressure; even if CXMT only absorbs lower-end demand, those orders leave first. Watch the yield curve, which decides whether this path is a supplement or a substitute.

▪ SIGNALDomestic HBM going from zero to something changes not the performance ceiling but whether China’s AI chips can be scheduled on their own clock.