❯ ASML’s equipment sales to China rose 109% quarter on quarter in Q3, and it expects China to be about 20% of full-year sales

China sales more than doubleLithography maker ASML reported third-quarter results on October 14 with record net sales of €11.7 billion. According to TechWire Asia, China’s share of its system sales, measured by shipment destination, rose from 14% in the second quarter to 23%, with China sales up 109% quarter on quarter.

Full-year outlook unchangedASML kept its expectation that China will account for about 20% of total 2026 sales. CEO Christophe Fouquet said domestic demand in China for mainstream logic and memory is very strong, with new fabs coming online. According to CNBC, ASML also raised the low end of its full-year sales forecast from €43 billion to €44 billion, for a range of €44 billion to €45 billion.

Orders out to 2030Fouquet said some customers want to place orders for 2029 and even 2030, that planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet demand, and that the company is looking at ways to expand beyond its previously forecast 30% capacity increase. During the quarter, Samsung and TSMC both committed to ASML’s next-generation High NA EUV machines.

▮ SIGNALWith equipment orders stretching four years out, the pace of chip capacity growth now depends more on how fast upstream machines can be built than on how many fabs chipmakers want.